Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
